Russian Federation's Diary
Russian Federation's Diary
Russia is a Sagittarius sun, Ukraine is run by a comedian, and Emily For President is a year old!!!!!!
I’m as shocked as anyone that we are gathered here today for the first anniversary of Emily For President. To celebrate, I too am going to hold a 2-hour long press conference.
In all sincerity, I am ecstatic that February 9th marks one year of E4P. For a long time, I was genuinely scared this was never going to last and I was going to have egg on my face like Ted Cruz in that Mexican airport. But the thing that brings me so much joy —and what I believe makes Emily For President so special— are all the guests I’ve had and will (hopefully!!!!) continue to have.
I get so excited each week fawning over everyone’s brilliance because it is truly incredible to watch so many different people light up about the things they love or have to say. What started as a way for me to keep writing in between jobs has turned into a thinly veiled excuse to reach out and chat with people I think are so cool and smart and great. Who wouldn’t want to do that every week???
I’m humbled that so many people trusted me to share their knowledge and ask stupid questions about Twitter, but I’m also honored to be able to offer a space for people’s passions and research and thought exercises. I’m proud to be your candidate for whatever it is you think I’m running for. From the team here at Emily For President (aka me and Cat), thank you for an amazing year.
Now let’s talk about World War III!!!1
History Has Its Eyes on Annexing Ukraine
As usual, Russia is simply doing too much. When it’s not poisoning and jailing dissidents, it’s invading neighboring countries— typical drama queen behavior.
The developments of the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine have been growing increasingly worrisome and it’s hard not to wonder if this is how World War III begins seeing as it’s how the last world war began as well. You would think the general fear of potential nuclear combat would have turned every war passive-aggressive as all hell, but alas. To understand why we’re here, we have to go back to my favorite place: the past.
The first stop on Emily’s Magical History Tour is the Revolution of Dignity which is a cool name for a big problem. In November 2013, the Ukrainian people largely wanted their president at the time, Viktor Yanukovych, to sign a trade agreement with the European Union and he wouldn’t. This resulted in months of protests which led to the Ukrainian government being overthrown and replaced. Yanukovych was favored by Russia and after he was impeached and removed from office, he declared that the vote was illegal…. hm. Russia then refused to recognize the interim unity government which set off another wave of protests both in favor and against the revolution.
That brings us to our second stop, February 20, 2014, which was the official start of the Russo-Ukrainian War which followed an escalation of the second wave of protests. (A quick pause here to wish an early happy birthday to Roy Cohn, still —as of now— the worst thing to start on February 20.) The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War is currently classified as a Minor Conflict which, according to E4P’s Lead Historian, means it has “caused at least 100, and fewer than 1,000, direct, violent deaths in a current or past calendar year.”
In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula after pro-Russian protests kicked off in areas that Yanukovych had won in the election. But it’s as the age-old saying goes, the annexation of Crimea was in large part because of location, location, location: it’s right on the Black Sea which offers a warm water port and access to the ocean— something that, for absolutely no reason, I will always remember Russia being forever obsessed with.
But the Russian urge to invade Ukraine is not just tactical. It’s also really emotional:
Despite being an independent country since 1991, as a former Soviet republic, Ukraine has been perceived by Russia as being part of its sphere of influence. Iulian Chifu and his co-authors claim that in regard to Ukraine, Russia pursues a modernized version of the Brezhnev Doctrine on "limited sovereignty", which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact prior to the demise of the Soviet sphere of influence. This claim is based on statements of Russian leaders that possible integration of Ukraine into NATO would jeopardize Russia's national security.
Showing Ukraine it loves it and needs it with actions instead of words is typical Sagittarius energy.2
Russia Can Have a Little War, As a Treat
Adding to why and how Russia wants to invade Ukraine is the Donbas War, a mini-war happening under the larger Russo-Ukrainian War umbrella.
There’s a concept called New Russia which is “a historical term of the Russian Empire denoting a region north of the Black Sea (now part of Ukraine).” In 2014, Russian President and Spy-In-Chief Vladimir Putin essentially called for a New New Russia (a term I fully just made up) when he “issued a statement of bewilderment as [to] how the region had ever become part of Ukraine in 1922.”
This lent support to pro-Russian separatist groups growing in the Ukrainian cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, which together make up the Donbas region. Referendums were held and the separatists declared they were now the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Despite these claims, no other government recognizes these results as legitimate, kind of like Trump still claiming he won the 2020 Election. (It was the second time the joke came up— I had to.)
Anyway, this tension further escalated into an
armed conflict between the separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR respectively), and the Ukrainian government. While the initial protests were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government, Russia took advantage of them to launch a co-ordinated political and military campaign against Ukraine.
This is important to note as the Donbas region could play a huge part in Russia’s land grab should they move to invade Ukraine. The video at the top of this CNN article explains the history and logistics of three potential land invasion strategies. TL;DW: the most likely attack involves Russia invading through at least Crimea to the south and the Donbas region to the northeast.
Since Putin is a messy bitch who lives for drama, he will likely also send troops along the rest of the coast of the Black Sea as he has already done in Friend of the Federation, Belarus, thereby blocking off all sea escape routes from Ukraine and surrounding the capital city of Kyiv. To the west, Ukraine is largely surrounded by NATO member countries which is a massive point of contention for Putin and Russia.3
NATO's founding articles declare that any European country that is able to meet the alliance's criteria for membership can join. This includes Ukraine. The U.S. and its allies in Europe have repeatedly said they are committed to that "open-door" policy.
But in the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, NATO's eastward march represents decades of broken promises from the West to Moscow.
"You promised us in the 1990s that [NATO] would not move an inch to the East. You cheated us shamelessly," Putin said at a news conference in December.
The U.S. says a ban on expansion was never on the table. But Russia insists it was — and now, Putin is demanding a permanent ban on Ukraine from joining the pact. (X)
Simply put: Putin feels like he’s under attack. What do trapped animals and men who have been proven wrong but are ill-equipped to ever admit they are wrong do when they feel attacked? They lash out violently.
Ukraine’t Be Serious
Ok so… what happens now?
In the past few weeks, Russia has gathered 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders and US officials have claimed “that Russia has assembled 70% of military forces needed for a full-scale invasion.” Meanwhile, although there are around 70,000 US troops permanently stationed in Europe, 7,000 troops on rotation with NATO, and 8,500 troops stationed domestically with warnings to be ready to deploy, “Biden and other U.S. officials have said that no U.S. soldiers will take part in combat in Ukraine.”
French President and Hottest World Leader Emmanuel Macron met with Putin today to attempt a little de-escalation je ne sais quoi but the result was giving very, comment dit-on, Neville Chamberlain.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had sharply critical words for NATO and Ukraine in a news conference following a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Moscow, but suggested that "further steps" were possible on the diplomatic front after the French leader heads to Kyiv on Tuesday.
"A number of his proposals and ideas, about which it is too early to speak, I consider quite possible in order to lay a foundation for our further steps," Putin said. "Let's see how the meetings for the president [Macron] will go in Kyiv. After his trip to Ukraine, we will call each other again and exchange views on this matter." (X)
Macron and Biden seem to think an escalation of war war can and will be avoided which seems optimistic at a time when optimism feels like Bridget Jones going to tell Mark Darcy she loves him4:
Of course, it does feel safer now to have all of that military spending in our budget available to protect us from something.5 But it feels a little spooky to hear that on one hand, Putin probably won’t authorize an invasion…. except if he did, “U.S. officials have made a grim assessment of the potential for up to 50,000 civilian casualties” (X). And it’s also slightly unnerving that one of our best sources of protection against Russia is also one of the things aggravating Putin the most:
Russia’s demands — including a ban on admission of Ukraine and other Eastern European countries to NATO and moves to roll back alliance forces and equipment from Eastern Europe and the Baltic states — have been rejected by the U.S. and NATO. (X)
This all has the potential to change at any second but hasn’t changed all day: it’s Almost War! It’s very nearly war, but not quite. War that’s practically war in every way… except for a few key ones.6
It appears like we will have to cross that trench when we get there and in the meantime hope that Putin just likes the attention and is bluffing about the whole actually invading thing.7
Emily For President, Not Cyberbully
If you all noticed, I didn’t get into the Ukraine-having-a-comedian-as-a-president bit because I felt like Volodymyr Zelensky definitely got enough of that during President Trump’s first impeachment and the man is clearly going through a hard time.
We also don’t have time to get into the whole “Germany acting funky over a gas pipeline” of it all, but just note that “Germany acting funky” is has gone 2/2 for being a Harbinger of a World War.
To end as we started (on a happy note), I give you the only gift I can offer in these trying times:
Thank you all for an amazing year of Emily For President!!! Here’s to surviving long enough to see another one!!!!!
This is one of those things that should go without saying, but the roots of the tension between Russia and Ukraine go far deeper than what I’ve described here. The Wikipedia pages for armed conflicts are shockingly involved so I would recommend starting here and searching around in the cited source material for further information.
Russia, as we know it today, was formed on December 12, 1993, with the signing of the current constitution after the Soviet Union was abolished. Sagittarius season runs from November 22 to December 21, therefore making Russia a Sag sun.
The source for this is an NPR article that offers one of my favorite occurrences when studying history: sometimes the truth is genuinely stranger and more fascinating than fiction.
Also, a brief history lesson: NATO is “the mutual defense pact formed in the wake of World War II that has long served to represent Western interests and counter Russia's influence in Europe.”
Especially since President Biden did already say he anticipated Russia will attack.
This is what the kids call a backhanded compliment.
And yes, technically it is already a war but the escalation of tensions would bring about a larger-scale war involving countries besides Russia and Ukraine. Really the joke should be “It’s an Almost World Ward.”
We’re all probably going to war.